DAE think password managers are a bad idea for most people?

Everyone in this community acts like a password manager is the first thing you should set up, and I think that advice backfires for normal people. Three years ago I was at a bar in Denver talking to a guy who sold identity theft insurance, and he said the claims he sees most are people locked out of their own vaults because they forgot the one password that opens everything. So now all their logins live in a box they cannot get into, and they end up resetting 40 accounts by hand over a weekend. A single point of failure that holds your whole life is still a single point of failure, no matter how good the encryption is. I use a paper notebook that never touches the internet, and yeah it can burn, but I know where it is and nobody can phish it. My take is that most folks are safer with 6 or 7 strong passwords they actually remember than a vault they will lose access to. Has anyone here actually been locked out of their manager and had to start over?